引入人口结构和社会保障因素的中国储蓄率模型

在对国民储蓄率的影响因素进行分析后,对经典的生命周期模型进行了拓展,引入了人口结构和社会保障两因素,从而构建了一个新的生命周期模型。在此基础上,对我国的国民储蓄率进行实证研究后发现,我国的人口结构确实会对国民储蓄率产生较显著的影响,而社会保障水平却对其影响不显著。     

Consumer value and self-image congruency at different stages of timeshare ownership

An understanding of customers’ perceptions of value is fundamental to the competitive nature of all industries. Using the timeshare resort sector as a context for our studies, we explore the ways in which consumers, grouped according to their timeshare ownership stage, perceive value. Data were collected from three samples: non-owners of timeshare, recent purchasers of timeshare, and longer-term timeshare owners. Value was shown to be multi-dimensional, with a stable pattern of eleven correlated value factors evident in all three samples. The groups differed in their assessments of the different dimensions of value. In all groups, however, value was positively correlated with attitudes and future intentions regarding timeshare. Self-image congruency explained additional criterion variance. The findings demonstrate that, even among consumers who have never used timeshare, value and self-image congruency are substantial and unique predictors of attitudes and intentions regarding this tourism product.     

新疆金融结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

本文首先对新疆金融结构与经济增长进行了相关关系、因果关系分析；其次利用协整理论，建立新疆金融结构与经济增长之间的协整方程，以考察新疆金融结构的变化及其对经济发展产生的影响；最后对其实证结果进行解析。     

Some Reflections on the Spatial Dimensions of Occupational Segregation

This paper considers the role that urban spatial structure may play in the process of occupational segregation, and argues that neoclassical economic models of urban employment and residential location decisions have not considered the relationship between gender-based labor market status and space. The paper provides a critical feminist perspective on how conventional urban models have been used to explain patterns of segregation, and suggests reasons for limitations in existing theoretical and empirical analysis. It also explores ways in which economists can draw on work in other disciplines to develop fuller and more useful models of the relationship between urban spatial structure and occupational segregation.     

基于贝塞尔曲线的中、美、日利率期限结构静态研究

利率期限结构曲线的静态拟合是指,使用不同类型的数学函数近似地描述整条利率期限结构曲线。当前最流行的静态拟合方法是利用B样条曲线来拟合利率曲线。然而,该方法往往受制于阶数的限制,而仅仅停留在3阶。本文通过利用B样条曲线的特殊形式——Bezier曲线拟合了中国、美国、日本国债利率的期限结构曲线,获得了一种可以升阶的拟合方法。同时,将复杂的曲线拟合计算,简化为对散点的聚类分析,取得了中国利率期限结构的模型。     

Retail planning policy and large grocery store development: A case study in South Wales

Summary

This paper describes and evaluates the recent history of large grocery store development within the four counties of Industrial South Wales. After a discussion of major grocery companies’ programmes of store development, the timing and location of the 26 large stores opened in Industrial South Wales between 1972 and 1986 are described. The paper then analyses Structure Plan policies for large store development in the four counties, and compares the locational pattern of stores developed during the 1980s with that proposed in the Structure Plans themselves. Discrepancies between actual and proposed categories of store location are shown to reflect the more liberal planning policies of the Welsh Office, and of some District Councils. Finally, some conclusions are drawn relating to wider aspects of the planning control of retail development.     

日元升值对日本进出口贸易的影响及其对我国的启示

20世纪70年代以来日元升值与日本对外贸易的关系表明:从短期看日元剧烈升值对日本对外贸易造成一定的冲击,但日本政府和企业采取相应措施缓解了日元升值对其带来的负面影响,即通过调整产业结构、加强科技创新、发展对外直接投资等措施来化解矛盾;从长期看日元升值并没有给日本对外贸易的增长造成实质性影响。研究日元升值与日本对外贸易间的关系,对同样面临人民币升值压力的我国具有重要的借鉴意义。     

我国上市公司股权结构与现金股利政策关系研究——基于半参数模型的分析

多重委托代理关系的存在使得我国上市公司股权结构与现金股利政策之间的关系极其复杂。选取多个代理变量从不同的角度构建半参数模型,利用函数形式来刻画两者之间的非线性关系。利用我国565家上市公司的数据进行实证研究,结果表明:股权制衡度与现金分红数量之间存在倒"S"形关系,拐点分别在30%和60%左右;前十大股东持股比例与现金分红意愿及分红数量之间均存在明显的倒"U"形关系,拐点分别在60%和80%左右。     

影响我国电子商务产业结构的原因分析

从艾瑞咨询各年度的电子商务产业调研报告可以发现,自主型B2C电子零售产业的集中度要远低于平台型B2B和C2C电子商务产业,经过分析发现网络外部性、沉没成本、转换成本和价格或成本优势是导致集中度存在差异的主要因素,这些因素有可能对产业竞争带来长期伤害,本文试图寻找克服这些因素的方法。     

Pecking order as a dynamic leverage theory

Static tradeoff theories, which do not explicitly treat the impact of transaction costs, do not explain the policy of asymmetry between frequent small debt transactions and infrequent large equity transactions. Nor do these theories explain why the debt ratio is allowed to wander a considerable distance from its alleged static optimum, or how much of a distance should be tolerated. We offer a class of diffusion models that mimic this behaviour in a stochastic-dynamic framework and are designed to optimize a financing strategy using any static tradeoff theory as input. The models developed reveal the determinants of the size and frequency of equity transactions and the range of values over which leverage variations are tolerated in four generic scenarios. They also yield a new formulation of the cost of capital that recognizes stochastic transaction costs and a penalty for deviation from any static-optimal leverage. Our class of models augments the pecking order theory, provides a flexible quantitative framework for its implementation as a decision tool, and facilitates the formulation of additional hypotheses for its empirical validation. Symmetrically, our results show the importance of dynamic factors in designing and interpreting empirical tests of static tradeoff theories. The results presented have important implications for the role played by static tradeoff theories in a stochastic-dynamic framework. One such implication is that the static-optimal leverage has no direct effect on the firm's leverage policy in this setting. The target leverage for refinancing transactions is different from the static-optimal leverage, and the mean leverage is generally different from both. As a consequence, the latter cannot be used to estimate the former. Another implication is that even when the mean leverage equals the static optimum, mean reversion is not an optimal behaviour and therefore not a legitimate test for the existence of a static tradeoff in a dynamic context. Still another implication is that wide variations in leverage ratios cannot be interpreted as evidence of leverage indifference. It follows that the pecking order theory is consistent with static tradeoff theories and does not require the assumption of leverage indifference.